EUR/USD flows - presser less dovish, back to square one
Press conference more balanced, referencing debate over a hike this meeting. Intraday covering wins out
Intraday covering is the order of the day as the ECB press conference unfolds, 1.1150~ resistance now the level being tested to leave things pretty flat. Lagarde in particular alluded to the fact that the argument for a hike was discussed and that this was, as one question put it, well described as a non-hike meeting rather than unchanged.
Regarding any carry over from this decision to future decisions, Lagarde also described the situation, if informally, as 'the direction of travel is clear', unless news changes the stance. Second round effects, as an area of particular attention, are also given a little more prominence (though prompted by a questioner), alongside the nods to underlying inflation stability and the financial conditions. So a degree of walking back from any overt and decided stance shift implied by the statement. That said, while the meeting-by-meeting line is a big cliché, the outlook is framed more concretely in those terms this month and into the Dec forecasting round.