Cuba
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February 12, 2026
Cuba: Pressure Grows
February 12, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· The Donroe doctrine has pressured Mexico into halting oil exports to Cuba, which is intensifying pressure on Cuba’s regime. While chaos and attempted mass immigration is a risk, the baseline is for a negotiated deal as U.S./Cuba discussions deepen – though with the added complex
January 28, 2026
Trump’s Problems
January 28, 2026 8:35 AM UTC
Overall, the Trump administration’s hyperactive start to 2026 is unlikely to achieve success on the number one issue for voters in the shape of cost of living concerns. Meanwhile ICE’s immigration tactics in Minnesota are causing concerns among swing voters, though Trump geopolitical adventuri
January 12, 2026
Maximum Trump
January 12, 2026 9:55 AM UTC
· Overall, though Trump action can cause volatility in financial markets, the major issues remain the performance of the U.S. economy and whether the current scale of AI optimism will remain. Monthly TICS data since the April reciprocal tariffs show that global investors continue inwa
January 07, 2026
Greenland: U.S. Sphere of Influence or More?
January 7, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· Trump will likely go for more pressure and then seek to negotiate with Denmark and Greenland. Denmark and Greenland already have mutual interests with the U.S. on security; minerals and Russia/China that are already covered by previous agreements and understandings. Trump would li
January 05, 2026
Venezuela: Oil and Geopolitics
January 5, 2026 12:02 PM UTC
· Venezuela’s oil production will likely take years to increase substantively due to poor infrastructure, the need for substantive investment, and a lack of democratic political stability. In terms of geopolitics, operations in Venezuela reinforce the Trump administration’s pivot
