U.S. Initial Claims rise but still low, Continued Claims fall but trend fairly stable
Initial claims are as expected at 210k, up by 5k from last week’s 9-week low. Continued claims at 1.819m are lower than expected, down by 32k and the lowest since September 2024, though trend remains fairly stable.
Last week’s initial claims and this week’s continued claims data cover the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll. Unusually mild weather in that week may have contributed to the declines.
The 4-week average for initial claims suggests that March’s payroll will pick up from a negative February, but is unlikely to be a strong as January’s. We expect a rise of only 20k.
Despite the weekly decline, a downtrend in continued claims has lost momentum, and that argues against a strong rebound in March’s payroll. We are in a low hirings and low layoffs environment, suggesting little change in payrolls.
