EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD - US PCE and Nvidia next up; Iran talks continue

Main action overnight coming from the AUD, following firmer than expected CPI data. Hike odds for the Sep meeting are up to around 40%. AUD/USD stretching towards 0.7180/72 highs ahead of the bigger 0.7250/75~ tops. AUD/NZD also bouncing for the recent 1.21~ band upside ahead of the wider 1.22.

Oil prices remain towards the low side of the recent action with Iran and Oman discussing ‘a joint temporary navigational corridor’ through the Strait and to clear the route of mines. Iran-Pakistan wider talks also still continue. Activity enough to keep oil prices capped back from the highs, especially with some inventory figures showing some gains, though the picture remains ‘complicated’ (not least the recently explosive reaction of Trump to prior Iran-Oman talks).

Focus turns to more concrete matters today with US PCE in focus followed by Nvidia earnings after the close. For the latter, the options marked was factoring in a +/-6% swing or so, so reaction can be quite influential. For July’s core PCE price index, we look for it to rise by a moderate 0.2%, with overall PCE prices up by 0.1%. We expect a 0.2% rise in personal income but with spending unchanged. We also expect a marginal upward revision to Q2 GDP to 1.6% from 1.5%, and a 0.6% increase in July durable goods orders, with ex transport up by 0.9%. Fed’s Barkin also speaks today.