U.S. Initial Claims rise but still low
Initial claims at 214k are up from 208k and slightly higher than expected, in data that covers the survey week for April’s non-farm payroll. Trend however remains subdued.
The 4-week average of 210.75k is exactly the same as it was in March’s non-farm payroll week, a month that saw a healthy payroll increase of 178k.
Continued claims cover the week before initial claims, and increased by 12k to 1.821m, a second straight gain but still not fully erasing the decline of two weeks ago that took the series to its lowest since May 2024. The 4-week average remains below where it was in March’s payroll survey week.
Further hints of a healthy labor market come from the weekly ADP employment survey released on Tuesday, with the 4-week average to April 4 showing an average weekly gain of 54.75k, which if sustained in the next two weeks would imply a payroll gain of over 200k. ADP data may however be catching up with March’s non-farm payroll, which its monthly data underperformed.
