Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3
We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.
Gasoline prices saw accelerated gains in September which given little growth in employment and wages will weigh on real disposable income. Industry data suggest auto sales slipped in September.
Sales excluding autos and gasoline saw a strong 1.2% increase in August after a 0.3% decline in July, with July being depressed by a sharp 1.7% fall in on line sales due to Amazon conducting a promotion in June rather than the usual July. Online sales surged by 2.6% in August and are unlikely to sustain that level. We expect a 0.1% fall ex autos and gasoline in September, with sales ex autos down by 0.3%.
Weekly data from Redbook suggests some loss of momentum in September, after an acceleration in August. Weakness in consumer confidence is not a reliable guide to sales, but suggests gasoline prices are causing concern.
Our forecasts would leave Q3 sales up by 0.9% overall, 1.0% ex autos and 1.1% ex autos and gasoline (not annualized), far from weak but down from respective gains of 2.9%, 3.1% and 2.1% in Q2.
