Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July
We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.
We expect sales ex autos to increase by 0.5% safter two straight declines. Industry data suggests auto sales have more than fully reversed a decline in July that followed a healthy increase in June.
Gasoline prices saw renewed gains in August after slipping in June and July, though the lift to August retail sales will be modest. We expect a 0.4% increase in sales ex autos and gasoline after a 0.2% June decline that was fully explained by non-store retailers.
That June sales ex auto and gasoline rose by only a moderate 0.4% despite the Amazon promotion suggests underlying demand is moderate, restrained by weakness in real disposable income. Non-store sales rose by 0.9% in June, which July’s 2.2% decline more than fully reversed. Still, non-store sales are likely to be stronger in August than in July’s post-promotion correction.
Even with stronger August sales, the 3-month/3-month paces are likely to continue losing momentum, ex autos and gasoline to 1.1% from 1.6%, ex autos to 0.7% from 1.9% and overall to 1.0% from 1.9%. These paces (all not annualized) will all be their slowest since February.
