Published: 2026-01-29T18:58:41.000Z
U.S. Q4 GDP now seen at 3.1% rather than 3.6% after wider November trade deficit
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Following today’s wider trade deficit for October, the Atlanta Fed has revised its Q4 GDP estimate down to 4.24% from 5.4%. We have revised our estimate to 3.1% from 3.6%. We are assuming a December deficit only marginally narrower than November’s, and significantly wider than October’s.
We now expect exports to increase by 4.1% rather than 5.8% and imports to fall by 2.5% rather than 4.9%. As a consequence of trade policy shifts, net exports have been a major source of volatility within recent GDP data. However under our revised forecasts, for 2025 as a whole, exports would be up a modest 2.1% and imports up by a similar 2.0%.
