April US trade deficit shows a fairly stable picture, Canada trade balance shows a stronger surplus
April’s US trade deficit of $55.9bn is a little narrower than the market expected but less of an improvement from March than expected, with March’s deficit being revised lower, to $56.6bn from $60.3bn. The deficit has not changed much over the last four months, and appears to be stabilizing at a level below the 2024 (pre-tariff) trend of around $75bn per month.
Goods data showed exports up by 4.1% versus 4.0% in the advance report and imports up by 2.1% versus 1.9% in the advance report. Prices were firm with exports up only 0.7% in real terms while real imports fell by 0.1%. The goods deficit of $83.7bn is down from $$86.1bn in March, with March’s deficit revised down from $88.7bn. Advance goods data had signaled that March’s deficit would be revised lower.
Three quarters of the rise in goods exports came from crude oil which was clearly price-inflated. The exports gain would have been even stronger were it not for a sharp fall in nonmonetary gold, which even with the decline are still at a historically strong level. Exports of computers were the other main source of strength, if not enough to offset the fall in nonmonetary gold.
Imports of crude oil saw only a modest rise which suggests a decline in real terms. Computer imports also saw a strong rise, similar to that of computer exports. Pharmaceutical preparations were another source of strength for imports.
The services surplus fell to $27.8bn from $29.5bn in March, with March revised up from $28.4bn. Service exports fell by 0.4% after three straight moderate gains while service imports rose by 1.6% after a 1.8% decline in March. Overall exports rose by 2.6% while imports rose by 2.0%.
Canada recorded a C$2.72bn trade surplus ion April, up from C$1.75bn in March and the strongest since January 2025 when exporters were trying to beat expected tariffs. Exports rose by 1.6% with strength not confined to energy, with a partial offset by a sharp fall in gold exports to the UK. Imports were little changed, up by 0.3%.
