Published: 2024-06-07T09:47:20.000Z
USD flows: U.S. Employment More Reaction if Weak?
Director of Research , Macroeconomics and Strategy
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The USD was sideways in Europe, with the approach of the U.S. employment report being key.
The bias is that a 50k downside surprise would cause a large USD selloff than a USD bounce on say a 50k upside surprise, as the FX and bond markets are starting to think about more rate cuts again. The market is discounting a 25bps November cut and close to a further cut in December. Charts suggest a break of 1.0930 could open up 1.1000.
