Psychology for major markets February 20th
USD stabilising at lower levels. JPY firm as JGB yields rise
EUR/USD – EUR/USD slipping back towards 1.04 as initial optimism on Ukraine fades, but picture looks rangy near term.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY pushing lower as US yields drop back and JGB yields hit 15 year highs, helped by some less positive equity sentiment as tariff concerns hit
EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP broke below 0.83 after better than expected employment data and higher than expected CPI but GBP looks a little expensive here without some more positive news to justify gains.
AUD/USD – Broke higher as optimism that tariffs won’t be too negative for global growth boosted Asian equities. Still looking attractive on a yield spread basis as long as risk sentiment is resilient, but resistance likely at 0.64.
Equities – Proving very resilient as both higher yields and tariff concerns have been shaken off, with hopes of Ukraine peace deal seen as positive. But high US valuations continue to be a barrier to further gains