Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

Cameroon (CMR)

Overall risk in Cameroon continues to be considered as medium high. The world’s oldest ruler Paul Biya continues to hold his Presidential role, following a disputed election that sparked deadly protests in October 2025 against Biya’s eighth term. The 93-year-old had pledged to restore order to Cameroon following 48 civilian deaths from protests and blamed irresponsible politicians for fueling such political unrest. Political violence and political interference both remain at a high-risk rating. In early April 2026, a bill reintroducing the position of vice president was strongly supported and approved by Cameroon’s parliament, allowing the vice president to assume the role of president if current President Biya is no longer able to carry out his duties. Opposition figures have voiced concerns about the potential erosion of democratic institutions and the possibility of increased centralization of power. Meanwhile, Yaoundé has maintained its ties with Russia following the five-year renewal of the countries’ military cooperation in 2022. Legal & regulatory risk has once again been assessed as high.

Economically, the IMF forecast GDP growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027. In terms of the conflict in the Middle East, Cameroon is expected to contain the recent rise in oil prices in the near term. Although, revenues from oil exports are declining compared to other African producers, largely due to aging oil fields and its main refinery being inactive. Cocoa had overtaken crude oil exports in 2025 accounting for 26.3% of Cameroon’s export earnings, while crude oil represented 22.9%. Meanwhile, the IMF forecast inflation to climb marginally to 3.5% this year. The government’s inability to provide stimulus remains at a medium risk rating, while the risk of doing business continues to be assessed as high. In addition, Cameroon’s 2026 budget deficit is expected to more than double following a steep rise in spending to support the nation’s economic activity amid global instability, while the IMF revised its government debt projection to a still falling 39.3% of GDP in 2026. Therefore, sovereign non-payment risk remains medium-high, while exchange transfer risk is assessed as medium due to the CFA Franc’s (XAF) peg to the Euro and its relative stability compared to many other, more volatile African currencies.

Central African Republic (CAF)

The Central African Republic (CAR) maintained its overall country risk rating of very high, despite the partial return of state control. In a turn to Russia and Rwanda for security support, President Faustin-Archange Touadera had secured his third-term in office following a secured outright majority in the December 2025 presidential election. Touadera’s holding of a referendum in 2023 had led to the complete abolishment of presidential term limits. Opposition, however, have regarded election results as fraudulent with even the main opposition coalition, BRDC, boycotting the election due to of what they described as election fraud. Political interference, political violence and legal & regulatory risk all have remained at a very-high risk rating, as recent peace deals with armed groups have merely incorporated them into the political system rather than reducing underlying instability. Although efforts have been made to nullify armed group’s control within the region, group activity still fuels insecurity across the CAR.

The IMF forecasts a subdued GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026, while predictions indicate a modest 3% in 2027. The CAR is known for its abundant reserves in gold, diamonds and oil but also its low economic diversification and reliance on such raw materials. The stabilization of gold production, following its surge in 2025 and the rise in illegal mining activity, has constrained the landlocked nation’s growth potential. Additionally, the country’s high dependence on fuel imports increases the risk of potential of fuel shortages. Informal fuel market prices are expected to sustain inflationary pressure, though the IMF forecasts inflation to remain below the BEAC’s 3% target through 2028. The risk of doing business has maintained its very high rating, while the government’s inability to provide stimulus has worsened to high, as the President seeks further support from Russia for the supply of energy. Government debt-to-GDP is forecast to rise progressively to 64% in 2026 and 66.5% in 2027, as access to grants and concessional financing - the country’s cheaper financing sources – continues to diminish, forcing reliance on domestic borrowing. Therefore, sovereign non-payment risk has risen to a very-high rating, while exchange transfer remains medium-high, supported by the CFA Franc’s peg to the euro.

Congo, Dem. Rep. (COD)

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains under significant political pressure, confronting an ongoing domestic Ebola public-health emergency while broader geopolitical uncertainty further intensifies these challenges. As a result, overall country risk has maintained its very high rating. President Felix Tshisekedi, whose term in office was determined by a controversial landslide election, has indicated that he would be open to seeking a third term if the 2028 vote is delayed by ongoing conflict in Eastern DRC and, more recently, a declared Ebola outbreak. Opposition figures insinuate that the DRC could fall into political turmoil if Tshisekedi’s remarks become a reality, providing reasoning for political interference maintaining its very high rating. The Ebola outbreak in eastern DRC has caused approximately 130 deaths since the fatal disease was declared in early May 2026. The outbreak is expected to grow, with daily case numbers rising. Meanwhile, political violence and legal & regulatory risk are unchanged at very high, despite a series of U.S. mediated agreements between the DRC and Rwanda aimed at de-escalating violence in the East of Congo. Washington has blamed Rwanda’s support for the M23 rebels for continued attacks and violent outbreaks in eastern Congo, as the predominately Tutsi rebel group’s occupation of territory in the region remains extensive. Additionally, attacks on civilians in the east by the ADF – an Islamic State-linked armed group responsible for severe violence and human rights violations – have intensified once again. This escalation follows an attack on the village of Bafwakoa that killed 43 civilians, despite ongoing joint Congolese-Ugandan military operations intended to curb such fatal assaults.

In contrast to such a deteriorating backdrop, the IMF’s recent April 2026 outlook indicates the DRC’s resilient GDP growth, with GDP forecasts reaching 5.9% in 2026 but dropping marginally to 5.4% in 2027. The DRC is a major supplier of both cobalt and copper, while also holding vast reserves in gold, coltan and lithium. The extractive sector had shown a mild slowdown earlier this year alongside President Tshisekedi stating that, despite the country’s strong output, the African state was losing revenues due to poor oversight of its extractive sector, capital flight through fraudulent imports and the non-repatriation of earnings. However, fresh momentum was evident in agriculture, services and construction supporting the improvement in the country’s growth forecast. Inflation continues to remain below the Central Bank of Congo’s 7% target, while forecasts expect levels to edge closer to such target. The IMF project a rate of 3.3% in 2026 followed by a steep rise to 6.4% in 2027 following the recent rise in fuel prices in response to the conflict in the Middle-East. Therefore, the risk of doing business has been re-affirmed at a high rating. Sovereign non-payment risk, however, remains medium high, while exchange transfer is assessed at a medium risk rating. The persistent armed conflict in Eastern DRC has created a weak public finance picture, although government debt to GDP currently holds relatively stable numbers. Forecasts of 24.6% in 2026 and 27.8% 2027, however, indicate an expected rise in the state’s government debt.

Congo, Rep. (COG)

Overall risk in the Republic of Congo, also known as Congo-Brazzaville, has been maintained at high after little alteration in the March 2026 presidential election. President Denis Sassou Nguesso extended his already 42-year rule over the Central African state in his March 2026 re-election, an expected outcome that saw the 82-year-old leader secure a 94.82% vote. Ahead of the vote, a fair election had already seemed unlikely following the arrest of human right activists, suspended opposition parties as well as the two well-known opposition leaders having been jailed for almost a decade. Therefore, political interference and legal & regulatory risk both remain very-high. The latest term for President Sassou is expected to be his last, as he looks to pass on a country that faces large levels of poverty, a lack of reliable electricity and persistent allegations of corruption. In terms of international relations, the Republic of Congo maintains China as its primary partner for the exportation of oil and as a major source of imports. Russian influence in the region does not go unnoticed, supplying materials essential for Congolese infrastructure while also providing support in terms of security. Political violence in the African region remains medium-high, social frustration seems to be growing surrounding the government’s lack of attention on the nation’s socioeconomic development.

The Congolese economy’s, according to the IMF, GDP growth is projected at 2.8% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Through measures such as tax breaks to stimulate higher production and improvements in awarding contracts, the Republic of Congo has increased the attractiveness of its position as sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest oil producer, as well as a growing gas producer. The approved 2026 budget reflects the country’s renewed commitment to fiscal consolidation, aiming to stimulate and strengthen growth after the loss of economic momentum in 2025. In addition, the government has requested discussions with the IMF to launch a new program following the country’s recent completion of its previous arrangement in March 2025. Inflation is expected to remain close to the BEAC’s maximum ceiling of 3%, forecast at 2.8% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. The risk of doing business is unchanged at very high, while the government’s inability to provide stimulus remains high. Meanwhile, sovereign non-payment risk has also been re-affirmed at a high rating, as debt vulnerabilities have remained elevated, though recent IMF forecasts indicate gradual improvement. In particular, a sustained large fiscal primary surplus has allowed for an improvement in forecasts, with an expected 91.3% of GDP in 2026 and 85.8% in 2027.

Cote d’Ivoire (CIV)

Cote d’Ivoire’s overall risk has been re-assessed at an improved rating of medium-high, as the Ivorian economy remains resilient despite the deepening uncertainty surrounding the global economic climate. President Alassane Ouattara had secured a fourth term following his widely expected presidential election victory late last year. The landslide victory, winning 89.8% of the vote, had seen the two biggest challengers barred from running in the election, as opposition groups announced voters to boycott the vote and would not recognize Ouattara as Cote d’Ivoire’s leader. Following a landslide of an election, President Ouattara appointed his brother, Defense Minister Tene Birahima Ouattara, to a new role of vice prime minister. Political violence remains high, although the President’s re-election had gone reasonably smooth. Cote d’Ivoire’s National Security Council has implemented precautionary measures to reinforce security along its northern border with Mali and Burkina Faso, where Islamist terrorist activity has intensified, contributing to a sharp rise in refugees crossing into the country. As well as being an anchor for stability in bordering regional conflicts, a longstanding strategic relationship remains with France, while the EU continues to hold its title as Cote d’Ivoire’s largest trading partner and investor alongside its USB 1.2 bln investment into the 2026 – 2030 National Development Plan. Therefore, political interference and legal & regulatory risk is assessed at a medium-high rating.

In the IMF’s April 2026 outlook, forecasts predict a GDP growth of 6.2% in 2026 and 6.3% in 2027. The agricultural sector, particularly the country’s cocoa production, is expected to expand mainly on its increased production and an estimated 5 million peoples continued dependence on the cocoa industry. However, the region’s unfavorable weather conditions and the recent drop in global cocoa prices are acting as a restraint on growth. In terms of oil production, exports and the gold industry, both sectors are expected to benefit from continued offshore production in the Baleine field and the record-high prices for gold. Inflation has shown moderate increases since the end of 2025, in particular, IMF forecasts indicate that inflation is to reach 1.8% in 2026. Overall inflation in WAEMU remained reasonably low in early 2026 meaning the Central Bank of West Africa (BCEAO) eased its policy rate 25bps in March 2026 to 3%. Although, uncertainties regarding the conflict in the Middle East mean the BCEAO will have to watch the situation carefully, given the pressure from higher energy import costs. The risk of doing business and sovereign non-payment risk are both regarded to have a rating of medium-high. Meanwhile, exchange transfer has seen positive progression to a medium rating, while Cote d’Ivoire continue to consolidate its public finances in coordination with the IMF since 2023. Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to continue its gradual decline, reaching 55.1% in 2026 and 54% in 2027.

Ghana (GHA)

Overall risk for Ghana remains medium. John Mahama, a member of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), had secured his second non-consecutive term following the NDC’s 184 out of 276 seats victory in Ghana’s 2024 presidential election. A result that was nationally expected due to the worsening debt crisis, poverty and depleted living standards all under the former leadership of President Nana Akufo-Addo. Under President Mahama, Ghana became the first African nation to establish a Security and Defense Partnership with the EU, while continuing to promote ECOWAS-related policies, amid a persistent medium rating in political interference, political violence and legal & regulatory risk. Security risk in the West of Africa continues its pathway of deterioration, particularly affecting Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger but also Ghana due to the heightened risk of terrorist spillover. Ghana’s northern border, in particular, has been susceptible to incursions by armed jihadist groups operating from Burkina Faso. Although the U.S.-Iran conflict has created many social and economic consequences globally, Ghana’s economy has remained rather resilient against external shocks, as President Mahama reinforces that the nation’s economy remains stable during times of volatile fuel prices. The IMF in April 2026 had forecast a GDP growth of 4.8% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027. The Ghanaian economy is driven primarily by the agricultural sector and natural resource exports, in particular gold, following a record 6 million ounces of gold produced in 2025. However, China, Western governments and mining companies had voiced their concerns prior to the implementation of a higher gold royalty policy in March 2026, warning the West African nation of reduced investment. The government’s inability to provide stimulus has seen improvement to a medium-low risk rating, while the risk of doing business is unchanged at medium-high. Inflationary pressure appears to be mounting due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S and Israel’s war against Iran, as Ghanaian petrol prices have risen by 15%, given that the country imports 70% of its refined fuel. The central bank, however, has continued its rate cutting cycle. In March 2026, a fifth rate cut of 150 bps was delivered reducing its policy rate to 14%, stating that their inflation expectations over the medium term are between 6%-10%. Sovereign non-payment risk and exchange transfer continue to be assessed at a medium rating. Ghana’s DDEP Program, initiated in 2022, was set up to address the unsustainable levels of debt and to improve investors’ confidence in the nation’s bonds. The latest USD 910 mln payment in interest through the DDEP Program in February 2026 is Ghana’s second full cash coupon payment, showing great improvement in the country’s fiscal capacity. Therefore, the IMF forecast government debt to GDP to continue its trend of reduction, falling from 53% in 2026 to 50.7% in 2027.

Madagascar (MDG)

Overall risk for Madagascar is medium-high, in the light of a protest led military-coup. Madagascar coup leader Colonel Michael Randrianirina had received a warm welcome after being sworn in as president in October 2025, making immediate change in term of the prime minister role, swearing in businessman Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo. The worsening developments of Gen Z protests and the widespread defection with in the military had led to ex-President, Andry Rajoelina, fleeing from office following his impeachment by regional lawmakers. Political violence has been re-affirmed at a medium-high rating. Gen Z demonstrations began in September 2025 over power and water shortages which slowly developed into anti-government protests, citing corruption and bad overall governance. In terms of foreign policy, the Malagasy transitional government has continued efforts of balancing relations as well as developing new and pre-existing ties. A visit to Moscow had shown Madagascar’s determination to work alongside Russia economically and politically, while an agreement aims to further consolidate cooperation regarding either party’s agro-industrial interests. Meanwhile, France continues to provide support regarding the Island nation’s rebuilding of political institutions and trust with the country’s population, particularly the youth. Therefore, political interference and legal & regulatory risk both remain a high.

The IMF’s GDP growth forecast 3.6% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, which is supported by the IMF’s structural and financial backing. Structural changes domestically, including the removal of the 16-year ban that prohibited new mining permits for minerals other than gold, have supported mining and helped drive Madagascar’s recovery from recent economic shocks. Surging global oil prices have caused for a volatile inflation picture, with predictions of 8.3% in 2026 and 7% in 2027. Emerging inflationary pressures led to the nation’s policy rate being maintained at a restrictive 12% to manage growing uncertainty, as well as to preserve the Malagasy Ariary’s (MGA) stability. Therefore, the risk of doing business has remained high, while the banking sector’s vulnerability has seen improvement to a medium-low rating. Lastly, sovereign non-payment risk and exchange transfer risk has improved to a medium rating. Government debt to GDP is forecast to rise marginally to 49.3% in 2026 and 50.4% in 2027, following record borrowing to finance the nation’s post cyclone recovery in energy infrastructure and broader reconstruction efforts.

Namibia (NAM)

Namibia’s overall risk is maintained at medium. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah had become the first women to hold such presidential position, setting out plans to tackle the country’s high structural unemployment over her five-year tenure. Political interference, legal & regulatory risk and political violence all remain at a medium risk rating. The president has continued to reiterate that acts of corruption should be equated to an act of treason as it undermines development and is seen to threaten the countries peace and stability. In December 2025, the appointment of Modestus Amutse as the nation’s new minister of mines, energy and industry comes after the President had removed Natangwe Ithete days after her administration expressed it would, ‘not tolerate complacency, negligence or self-interest’ in such role. In terms of foreign policy, since the U.S.’s reduction in aid to African countries, China has taken the reigns and is currently expanding its ties with the likes of Namibia. Focus has recently been on energy, mining and agriculture, while Namibia had received a satellite ground station which marks China’s efforts to expand it space program overseas. Regionally, South Africa remains a key partner despite tensions related to the extension of a 2021 ban on importing fresh South African products. In the IMF’s recent April 2026 outlook, GDP growth is forecast at a 2.4% rate in 2026 and 2.7% in 2026. Constraints continue to weigh on Namibia’s GDP growth rate, driven primarily by weak diamond demand and further pressured by softer global demand linked to the conflict in the Middle East. However, strong uranium and gold prices have partially offset the impact on public finances, cushioning the broader economic pressure. Inflation is forecast to reach 3.9% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, supported by Namibia’s central bank maintaining its 6.5% policy rate in late April 2026. The risk of doing business remains medium-high, while exchange transfer remains at a medium risk rating. In terms of sovereign non-payment risk, its recent evaluation still labels it at a medium-high rating, alongside the IMF’s government debt to GDP forecast of 70.5% in 2026 and 71.2% in 2027. Public debt’s projection of rising has been affirmed over the medium-term, highlighting that strong fiscal consolidation is needed.

Sierra Leone (SLE)

Overall risk for Sierra Leone is unchanged at high. Sierra Leone is a multiparty republic, with current President Julius Maada Bio serving as both head of state and head of government, while sharing power with the House of Representatives. President Bio has held office since 2018, and his re-election confirmed in 2023 prompted the opposition to boycott parliamentary sessions until both sides reached an agreement in July 2024. Political violence has been assessed at a medium level, as border disputes begun to escalate earlier this year. Since the end of the civil war in 2002, Sierra Leone had maintained positive relations with its neighboring countries, Guinea and Liberia. However, border tensions with Guinea flared in February 2026 after Guinea authorities claimed Sierra Leonean soldiers had entered unauthorized territory, leading to their arrest. In terms of international relations, China maintains their spot as Sierra Leone’s top trading partner and a major source of FDI, particularly into the West African State’s mining sector. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk are both regarded as having a high rating.

In the IMF’S April 2026 outlook, GDP growth is forecast at 4.5% for 2026 and 4.7% in 2027. Growth has been supported by a major mining expansion. The country’s iron exports are expected to rise following the expansion of both the Tonkolili and Marampa mines. A further source of potential growth is the anticipated increase in gold exports in 2026 under the Boamahun gold project. Alongside the economic backbone (which is the agricultural sector), Sierra Leone is expanding its opportunities in the extraction of oil. Inflation is expected to take a hit according to the IMF’s forecast of 7.5% in 2026 and 9% in 2027. This forecast reflects the rising of housing and transport costs, as well as Sierra Leone’s dependence on refined petroleum imports. Therefore, the risk of doing business and the government’s inability to provide stimulus are both assessed at high. Lastly, exchange transfer has seen no improvement in its rating, being said to have a high risk rating, alongside a continued decline in government debt to GDP, supported by an IMF staff-level agreement unlocking a further USD 78.8 mln in financing under Sierra Leone’s Extended Credit Facility.

South Africa (ZAF)

South Africa’s overall risk score remains at medium, with no changes in any of the risk levels in this reporting period. First, the Political Violence risk remains high, rooted in inequality and corruption. Despite structural risks such as unemployment and logistics bottlenecks remain strong, power supply constraints (loadshedding) significantly eased after May 2025. Political Interference remains at a medium-high rating due to internal conflicts. While the Government of National Unity (GNU) has recently shown friction over domestic policy, the administration continues to carry a unified front. (Note: Previously, the coalition got tested by the budget, national health insurance, and the U.S. additional tariffs, which lifted legal and regulatory risks to medium level). The inability of the government to provide stimulus remained medium-high in this rating period due to fiscal constraints as high sovereign debt and a narrow tax base continue to dominate. South Africa's gross debt—which is currently peaking at 78.9% of GDP—limits the state's capacity for aggressive fiscal intervention due to debt-servicing costs. On the other hand, South Africa's exit from the FATF grey list late 2025 was a pivotal economic development that enhanced its global reputation and cut transaction costs for businesses. The macroeconomic outlook for South Africa remains balanced, supported by moderate inflation and the potential for stronger fiscal performance. The risk of doing business, which is at medium-high, is helped by the improving economic environment. However, ongoing conflict involving Iran continues to cast a shadow of uncertainty over the horizon. Annual inflation increased to 4.0% y/y in April 2026 and the surge was driven by rising energy and transportation costs stemming from the ripple effects of the Iran conflict. Although the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is aiming for its 3% inflation anchor, Iran war could spark a renewed rise in inflation and disrupt progress in the near term. In the banking sector, solid capital buffers continue to protect institutions from economic shocks, keeping banking sector vulnerability at a medium-low level in this rating period underscoring the financial sector's resilience. Banks are well-capitalized and benefiting from improved sovereign risk profiles, though they remain cautious regarding high household debt levels.

Swaziland (SWZ)

Swaziland, officially known as the Kingdom of Eswatini, is Africa’s only absolute Monarchy and continues to carry a high overall country risk rating. King Mswati III celebrated his 40-year reign as Eswatini’s sole leader in April 2026, praised by supporters for the development of social programs but further criticized for his lavish lifestyle amid ongoing national poverty and inequality. Political violence remains medium-high, after previous protests against the monarchy had ultimately been violently oppressed. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk both are assessed at a high rating. In terms of foreign policy, Eswatini had reaffirmed their ties as Taiwan’s only formal diplomatic ally in Africa, with Taiwan President Lai’s surprise state visit to Eswatini in May 2026. Last year, Eswatini were granted USD 5.1 mln by the U.S. under a deal to accept third-country nationals deported by President Trump’s administration. In addition, the U.S. administration had signed a five-year health cooperation in efforts to combat the country’s reoccurring HIV outbreaks as well as creating a sustainable health system. Supply chain disruption maintains its medium-high risk rating.

In the IMF’s April 2026 economic outlook, Eswatini GDP growth is forecast at 4% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. The economy is primarily driven by domestically-funded public and private capital projects, along with investment implementation that has exceeded expectations. However, significant rises in global oil prices, especially due to Eswatini’s dependance on energy imports, is having further impacts on the country’s economic picture. Inflation is expected, by the IMF, to remain slightly elevated at 3.5% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 due to the remaining volatile energy prices. The national risk of doing business rating has been maintained at medium-high. Meanwhile, the movements of the South African rand (ZAR) continue to be felt, given that Eswatini maintains its 1:1 peg between the lilangeni (SZL) and the rand (ZAR). Exchange transfer remains medium alongside a medium-high sovereign non-payment risk.

Uganda (UGA)

The landlocked nation of Uganda continues to uphold its overall country risk of medium-high. President Yoweri Museveni had been declared a landslide winner in Uganda’s recent presidential election, since taking power in 1986 he has altered the constitution to remove age and term limits, brought relative stability to the country, while reducing overall levels of poverty and HIV. However, controversy struck following President Museveni’s victory against Bobi Wine, leader of the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP). Military Chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of President Museveni, had played a role in the four-day internet blackout and stated that 2,000 opposition supporters had been detained, while 30 had been killed in violent altercations against the authorities. The military chief blames Wine for the political up roar. Political violence, political interference and legal & regulatory risk are all expected to maintain a high-risk rating. In terms of international relations, Uganda had received its first transfer of 12 deportees from the U.S. under a migration deal signed last year for migrants that cannot be returned to their home countries. Migration deals, such as this one, continue to strain domestic resources in Uganda, as the refugee population grows. Approximately 2 mln people have taken refuge in the East African nation following political instability in the DRC and conflict-ridden South Sudan.

The IMF’s April 2026 outlook once again forecast a robust level of GDP growth in 2026 at 7.5% and 7.5% in 2027, driven by a surge in coffee exportations but also the nations emerging role as a major regional gold processing and trading center. Surging gold, coffee and oil re-exports revenues had reasoned for a 77.6% increase in merchandise export earnings in January 2026. Uganda’s major drilling operations of crude oil were set to begin by mid-2026, but Q1 2027 now appears the more likely completion date due to engineering setbacks. Fuel stocks in Uganda, however, are dwindling following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in regards to the deepening Middle Eastern conflict. The energy minister has expressed his plans to explore alternative supply channels to make up for falling fuel reserves. Supply chain disruption therefore remains medium high, while the risk of doing business is still considered as high. Inflation is still projected by the IMF to remain within Uganda’s central bank target of 5%, estimated to reach 4% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027. The central bank treads with caution following their decision to keep its main lending rate at 9.75%, like it has since October 2024, in an effort to support economic activity while ensuring stabilization of inflation. Sovereign non-payment risk is currently assessed as medium high, while efforts are being made to reduce the nation’s domestic debt issuance, plans indicate a 21% cut to debt issuance to help the climbing government debt. The IMF’s projection indicates government debt to GDP to start falling in 2027 to 54.4% from 55% in 2026. Finally, exchange transfer risk has been re-assessed at a medium level, supported by strong export earnings and high remittance inflows.

Zambia (ZMB)

Zambia, landlocked in Southern Africa, has seen its overall country risk rating upgraded to medium. President Hakainde Hichilema has held his power since 2021 and is expected to gain his second-presidential term in the upcoming August 2026 election. The supposed opposition party is unlikely to win over the public following its mismanagement of finances in 2011-2021, as Zambia is still emerging from its protracted debt crisis. In late 2025, President Hichilema had pushed for the constitutional changes that would expand Zambia’s parliament, a transition which critics have highlighted could further solidify his party’s place in the upcoming presidential election. Therefore, both political interference and legal & regulatory risk remain medium-high. In terms of African relations, Zambia continues to maintain close ties with the likes of the DRC (security and mining), Tanzania (energy) and Zimbabwe, despite Zambia’s significant policy shift in strengthening its position within the West while keeping close economic ties with China. Political violence has maintained its medium risk rating, supported by Zambia pursuing its neutral but positive foreign policy.

In the IMF’s April 2026 outlook, GDP growth is forecast at 4.3% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027 driven by Zambia’s mining sector revival, stability throughout the energy sector and a recovery in agriculture. Africa’s second largest copper producer is seeking global investment with the aim of tripling its copper output to 3 mln metric tons by 2031. The U.S. are looking like a probable source of finance due to President Trump’s goal of loosening China’s grip on such key materials. In addition to this, Zambia’s USD 1.7 bln Extended Credit Facility program concluded in January 2026, and now the country’s sights are locked onto a new support program, with discussions potentially stretching beyond the August 2026 presidential election. In terms of inflation, Zambia’s central bank had cut rates in its February 2026 meeting by 75bps meaning the country’s policy rate sits at 13.50%, followed by an IMF projection that expects annual inflation to slow to 9% in 2026 and 8% in 2027. The risk of doing business remains medium-high, while exchange transfer is considered to have a medium risk rating. To end, public external debt continues to be restructured, since the nation defaulted in 2020, explaining the slight fall in government debt to GDP, but much more work is needed to be done to reach sustainable levels. Sovereign non-payment risk is assessed as medium-high.

Zimbabwe (ZWE)

Overall risk for Zimbabwe remains high. President Emmerson Mnangagwa of the Zanu-PF party came into power following a military coup that ousted previous leader Robert Mugabe in 2017, serving his second five-year term which is scheduled to end in 2028. However, the Zimbabwean government is pursuing a change in the constitution to extend term limits from five-years to seven-years, enabling President Mnangagwa to stay in office until 2030, while also allowing parliament to elect the president instead of a direct public vote. Personnel who oppose the proposed changes consider the parliament’s control over elections unconstitutional. Legal & regulatory risk continues to be considered very high. Political instability is expected to persist in 2026, driven by the continued public discontent with the Zanu-PF party’s handling of poverty rates, job creation and the country’s high level of informality. Public protests against the current government are organized on a regular basis, although, many are systematically repressed. In terms of international relations, the U.S. have maintained its sanctions on President Mnangagwa and many other senior Zimbabwean officials, the EU has renewed its embargo over arms and equipment that may be used for repression purposes to February 2027. However, EU companies are beginning to show their interest in Zimbabwe’s economy, and China remains a key economic partner providing a majority of the African nation’s foreign investment. Both political violence and political interference are assessed as high-risk.

In terms of the Zimbabwean economy, the IMF forecast 5% GDP growth in 2026 and 4.25% in 2027 as the nation’s economic recovery continues. Growth has strengthened through the strong performance in mining and agriculture, supported by inflated gold prices and its recovering lithium and platinum output. In terms of Zimbabwe and the deepening conflict in the Middle East, plans are heading in the direction of scrapping a selection of taxes on fuel imports to reduce the rising fuel prices, which are calculated to have risen 40% in less than a month, and increasing the proportion of ethanol in its petrol from 5% to 20%. The government’s inability to provide stimulus has seen improvement reasoning for a medium risk rating. Inflation has fallen to single digits for the first time in over three decades, as the gold-backed ZiG (Zimbabwe Gold) currency and the unchanged 35% main interest rate continue to provide the needed inflation stability. The IMF forecast inflation to stabilize at 8% in 2026 and 2027. Exchange transfer risk and sovereign non-payment risk are both considered to have a medium-high rating. Government debt to GDP is currently estimated to keep its trend of stabilization at 42.3% in 2026 and 41.4% in 2027, supported by the implementation of the IMF-approved 10-month SMP.

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