U.S. September Advance Goods Trade - Deficit higher on capital goods imports
September’s advance goods trade deficit of $134.9bn from $132.1bn, continues to deteriorate, ensuring that net exports will be a significant negative in what is likely to be an otherwise strong Q3 GDP report tomorrow.
The trade deficit, having been temporarily restrained by tariffs, is now rising steadily, although remains below record pre-tariff levels set in Q1 of 2025.
Detail shows exports up by 2.6% and imports up by 2.4%, but imports rise by more in USD terms. Exports were particularly strong for food, capital goods and consumer goods. Imports were led by capital goods, probably related to surging AI-investment.
Advance wholesale inventories rose by 0.6% and advance retail inventories rise by 0.4%. This provides some offset from the negative GSDP implications of a wider trade deficit.