EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Trump and Ukraine/Taiwan

  The optimism on a near-term Ukraine peace deal is not being shared by the market, with Russia and Ukraine still far apart of territory and the issue of security guarantees.  Any surprise peace deal could help European gas prices lower, which would help a European recovery and the EUR.  Elsewhere, Trump was relaxed about China largest military drills around Taiwan, as is the market that sees this as a continuation of China grey warfare policy rather than a prelude to a blockade or invasion.  Blockade or invasion are ultra-high impact events, which would initially hurt Asian currencies, benefit the USD and whipsaw the JPY.