Psychology for major markets June 27th
EUR stable near 1.07, JPY still weak
EUR/USD – EUR/USD steady near 1.07 as French and German yields stabilise ahead of the French election. Focus will be on the politics until the second round of elections on July 7.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY prints above 160, despite there being little obvious trigger for further JPY weakness. Intervention risks rising but weaker risk sentiment looks necessary to turn the market.
EUR/GBP – Stabilisation in the mid-0.84s as French risks now seen as priced in. More dovish BoE stance limiting downside.
AUD/USD – Higher than expected CPI pushes AUD yields higher and AUD now testing upside at 0.67, but more general USD weakness may be necessary for a break.
EUR/CHF – Stabilisation after dip below 0.95 as French political risks are seen as priced in, but upside remains quite limited with ECB rate cuts likely to exceed SNB cuts from now on.
Equities – Valuations getting stretched in the US while European indices limited by French political concerns.