U.S. October Michigan CSI - Correcting September rise
October’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 68.9 is down from September’s 70.1 but still above August’s 67.9. Inflation expectations nudged up to 2.9% from 2.7% on a one year view but returned to trend at 3.0% on the 5-1- year view after September was marginally above trend at 3.0%.
The one year inflation view may be influenced by concerns over the Middle East. However the pick-up does not move it above what is a very stable 5-10 year view.
The detail shows both current conditions and expectations both partially reversing a September increase.
That October’s Michigan CSI saw a modest dip after a modest rise in September should not be a big surprise given that September saw the Conference Board consumer confidence index slide sharply, though after two straight gains. Trend does not have any clear direction.
