Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October PPI - Firm if less so than in September
We expect October PPI to increase by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, still too high for comfort but considerably slower than respective gains of 1.3% and 0.7% in September. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect only a marginal slowing, to 0.4% from 0.5% in September.
We expect a 0.3% increase in goods prices ex food and energy which is in line with recent trend. We expect energy to extend a 10.8% September surge by 3.0% but food to correct a 1,.2% September bounce by 0.3%. This would leave overall goods prices up by 0.7%.
We also expect a 0.3% rise in services though this will be restrained by a correction lower in trade from a 1.4% September increase. We expect other services to remain firm, particularly transportation and warehousing on to feed through from the Middle East supply situation, even if October’s rise in that sector may not match September’s 3.4%.
This would see yr/yr growth overall rising to 6.7% from 6.3% and this would be the highest since November 2022, though we expect the yr/yr ex food and energy pace to be unchanged at 5.0%. Ex food, energy and trade we expect a modest slowing in the yr/yr pace, to 4.8% from 5.0%.
