Published: 2026-09-21T06:41:29.000Z
EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: oil hoping on UN progress despite noise; France budget worries pressure
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Japan on holiday Mon-Wed, keeping overnight activity thin
Oil easing, hoping of diplomatic efforts at UN diplomacy
Background focus on French bond pressure on deficit/debt concerns
Japan on holiday Mon-Wed, tending to keep things quiet overnight and USD/JPY capped, one eye on trademark MoF activity just in case. Hope springs eternal to start the week with Brent off almost -$2, if still above $100, with UN meetings this week seen offering a possible diplomatic window, and following Axios reports last week suggesting the US will present a plan. For now, fresh exchange of verbal threats at the weekend taken as the usual pre-event posturing and Houthi activity set aside.
Some background interest in France, after the OAT-bund spread rose above 100bp at the close of last week, with the government expecting a deficit of 5.4% this year, fuel subsidies adding pressure, and debt projected to rise to 121.7% by 2027. More of a background slow burning issue than a current euro driver but still a theme to watch in coming months.