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Published: 2024-01-23T11:17:30.000Z

Psychology for major markets 23 Jan

byAdrian Schmidt

Senior FX Strategist
-

Rangy picture but USD/JPY looking toppy

EUR/USD – Strong USD tone fading slightly but hard to see much USD weakness while geopolitical concerns rise and US equities outperform.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY coming off new highs for the year and looking stretched. Nothing from the BoJ but Ueda’s press conference hinted at potential April tightening, suggesting JPY is likely near the bottom here.
EUR/GBP – Underlying sentiment GBP positive as UK inflation is perceived to be more persistent than elsewhere, but yield spreads suggest EUR/GBP risks are higher, and GBO vulnerable to less hawkish BoE rhetoric. 
AUD/USD – Rallying after weak employment data on general USD correction, but employment data and weak China sentiment makes upside scope look limited.
USD/CHF – CHF looks toppish here as SNB turns more dovish and halts FX selling.
Equities – US market making new all time highs but may be vulnerable to any decline in easing expectations.

 

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