Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest slippage
We expect August existing home sales to see a third straight monthly fall, by 2.0% to 3.98m, which would be the lowest level since a matching June 2025. That would see yr/yr growth slip to -1.2% from a positive 0.7%.
Evidence from housing sector surveys is on balance negative, with weak pending home sales in July the most significant as that data is designed to predict existing home sales. The MBA house purchase index remained weak in August but August’s NAHB homebuilders’ index showed some improvement. Upward pressure on bond yields is a downside risk.
We expect sales to fall in all four regions with the Northeast due for a significant fall while the South may be more resilient after leading July’s decline. The median price is likely to see a seasonal decline, we expect by 1.0%, which would see yr/yr growth slip to 1.8% from 2.0%.
