EUR/SEK, NOK/SEK: Upside on CPI, further rollover more risk, oil dependent
Upside on flash CPIF data though core still low enough not to be the focus
EUR/SEK has rolled back, with risk bounce, oil more the focal point still
Drifting towards uptrend, 38% retrac.
A pretty quiet overnight session leaving FX still mainly sidelined into early Europe.
Swedish flash Jul CPIF comes in stronger than expected at 0.8% and mkt of 0.6%, above 0.5% Riksbank expectations, though still down from 1.3%y/y. Core (ex energy) 0.6% from 0.4% (mkt 0.3%), also above expectations though low outright and so not a key focus.
EUR/SEK little changed on the day though with the recent equity gains leading a risk bounce the cross has been showing some slippage below the post-July 11~ range floor. Recent trendline support around 10.9~ and 10.88~ 38% retracement, any further below which it would be pulling back further into the 10-11 band. As with NOK/SEK, much depends on if the Iran deal actually materialises and gains any traction, with the oil/risk balance the key driving driver.