Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend
We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.
We expect single starts to show a 0.6% increase to 900k after three straight declines, with July’s non-farm payroll having shown some improvement in construction. However we expect single permits to fall by 1.4% to 860k, in line with a loss of momentum visible in most housing sector surveys.
We expect multiple starts to fall by 13.5% to 460k. This follows a strong June of 532k which rebounded from a very weak May of 302k. Given the positive payroll message in construction, we see multiples closer to the strong June than the weak July.
We expect multiple permits to rise by 1.6% to 510k in a correction from three straight declines, but this would still leave three straight declines in overall permits, signaling a softening of trend.
