Canada January retail sales - Positive start to Q1, but risks ahead
January Canadian retail sales with a 1.1% increase have fallen short of the provisional 1.5% estimate made with December’s report. Sales rose by 0.8% ex autos, 0.9% ex autos and gasoline and 1.0% overall in real terms. The preliminary estimate for February is for a 0.9% increase.
While January is a little less strong than expected with the positive preliminary estimate for February suggests trend which remained subdued in Q4 is picking up in early Q1.
However March data may be restrained in real terms by a surge in gasoline prices, while weakness in January and February employment also raises questions over whether these tentative positive signs can be sustained.
A bounce in auto sales came after a dip in December and auto sales are still negative yr/yr. January also saw a strong 3.0% increase in general merchandise but slippage in food and clothing.
