U.S. July Pending Home Sales - Getting close to January's record low
Pending home sales have fallen by 2.3% in July, a second straight decline to follow four straight gains that came off a record low seen in January. We are now only 0.6% above that record low, so this is clearly a weak figure.
The weakness of July pending home sales is consistent with weakness in the NAHB and MBA surveys in that month, though the former did correct higher in August. The data does suggest downside risk in August existing home sales, but with Fed tightening fears having eased, we expect pending home sales to find a base above January’s record low.
Pending home sales are down only a modest 2.2% on a yr/yr basis and yr/yr data has not moved very far from zero over the last 12 months. On the month sales fell in all four regions for a second straight month. Falls in the Northeast and Midwest can be seen as corrective from May strength but the South and West look weak on an underlying basis.
