U.S. July NFIB survey - Optimism on both labor market and prices
July’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism shows the optimism index at its highest since August 2025 at 99.8 from 97.4. Despite July’s weak payroll, respondents are more optimistic about the labor market while seeing reduced inflationary pressure.
The hiring plans index is a net positive at 20, up from 11 in June and the highest since an eye catching October 2022. Job openings at 46 from 32 are the highest since June 2025. Indices on wages are slightly up from a weaker June bur remain in their 2026 range.
The current net prices index of 31 is down from 38 in June which was the highest since February 2023 but still well above pre-war levels around 25. Future net price expectations also slipped, to a 4-month low of 28 from 32 in June. The inflation optimism may however be dated with Middle East risks rising again.
