Published: 2025-01-14T12:54:58.000Z
U.S. December NFIB survey extends sharp post-election bounce
Senior Economist , North America
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The sharp acceleration in the NFIB index of Small Business Optimism to 105.1 in December from 93.7 in October looks very similar to the boost that followed Trump’s election win in 2016, to 105.8 in December from 94.9 in October of 2016.
The real economy is unlikely to show such a sharp acceleration, but hiring plans have picked up, to 19 in December, the highest since May 2023, from 18 in November and 15 in October.
The stronger hiring picture does not appear to be lifting compensation, which at 29 from 32 is the lowest since March 2021. Compensation plans slipped to 24 from 28, reversing most of a bounce from 23 in October.
