U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing firm, services slowing
March’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed with manufacturing increasingly strong at 52.4 from 51.6 but services increasingly subdued at 51.1 from 51.7.
The S and P manufacturing index has rebounded from a modest dip in February and remains positive, as it was through most of 2025, contrasting ISM manufacturing data which has picked up in early 2026. The March Philly Fed manufacturing survey also suggests a positive ISM manufacturing index but the Empire State’s slipped marginally below zero. On balance, a healthy manufacturing picture appears to persist.
The S and P services index is the weakest since April 2025 and may reflect consumers, already restrained by weak employment and disposable income growth, taking a hit from higher gasoline prices. The S and P services index has been a poor guide to ISM services data recently, the former slipping while the latter has been acceleration. Further improvement in the ISM services index however looks difficult to achieve.
