Published: 2024-11-04T13:16:24.000Z
Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit rebounding after August narrowing
Senior Economist , North America
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We expect a September trade deficit of $84.7bn, up from $70.4bn in August and the widest since April 2022. We expect exports to fall by 1.6% after a 2.0% August increase and imports to bounce by 2.9% after a 0.9% August decline.
We expect goods to show a 2.0% decline in exports and a 3.8% increase in imports in line with advance goods data already released. This will restore a negative trend after August saw a significant narrowing of the deficit.
We expect a marginal decline in the services surplus with exports down by 0.9% and imports down by 0.8%. Declines in both series would be unusual but consistent with the assumptions made for September in the Q3 GDP report.
