Preview: Due November 16 - Canada October CPI - Slightly firmer
We expect September Canadian CPI to increase to 3.3% yr/yr in October from 3.1%, and to 3.27% from 3.09% before rounding. This would be the highest since December 2023. Energy will lead the increase, though we expect a marginal pick-up in CPI-Median, one of the Bank of Canada’s three core rates.
We expect gasoline prices to be slightly softer before seasonal adjustment, but slightly stronger after seasonal adjustment. While gasoline will see positive seasonal adjustments, the ex food and energy seasonal adjustment is negative in October. Unadjusted we expect CPI to rise by 0.4% overall, 0.5% ex food and energy, but seasonally adjusted CPI to rise by 0.3%, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy.
The Canadian economy appears to have lost some momentum after a strong Q2, with US tariffs likely to have an adverse impact in Q4. This could provide some restraint on ex food and energy CPI, though we expect a 0.2% increase seasonally adjusted, not quite as soft as September’s 0.1% which followed four straight gains of 0.3%, perhaps lifted by strong GDP growth in Q2. The yr/yr ex food and energy rate would then slow, to 1.9% from 2.1%.
The ex food and energy rate is not one of the BoC’s three core rates. We expect CPI-Common to be unchanged at 2.4% and CPI-Trim to be unchanged at 1.8%, with the latter also unchanged before rounding at 1.84%, which suggests a bounce is more likely that a further slowing. We expect CPI-Median, which slowed in October 2025, to pick up to 2.0% from 1.9%, or to 1.99% from close to 1.95% before rounding.
