Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Some signs momentum is slowing in Q3
We expect a 0.3% decline in August durable goods orders on a weak month for aircraft as implied by Boeing data, but a 0.7% increase ex transport. This would be slightly stronger than July’s 0.4% but would still suggest some loss of momentum in Q3.
We expect aircraft to lead a 2.0% decline in transport orders, with Boeing orders slipping further from a subdued July. We expect slippage in aircraft to outweigh a positive from autos. We expect little change from defense which has stabilized at a high level after strong gains in March and April. Ex defense we also expect a decline of 0.3%.
A 0.4% July rise ex transport was the slowest since November 2025 and followed five straight gains exceeding 1.0%. Slower price growth may partly explain the loss of momentum, while a 1.0% decline in computers and electronics in July looks corrective from a 3.1% increase in June.
A return to growth in computers and electronics is likely to help non-defense capital orders ex aircraft, a key indicator for business investment, pick up by 0.7% after a flat July, matching the August increase ex transport. However, with the August ISM manufacturing new orders index slipping to its slowest pace since March we do not expect ex transport orders to return to the Q2 trend, also rising by 0.7%.
