Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S and P PMIs - Middle East bringing downside risk
We expect slippage in March’s S and P PMIs, with manufacturing and services both falling to a marginally positive 51.0, from 51.6 and 51.7 respectively in February.
The S and P manufacturing index was positive through most of 2025 but may now be peaking. The situation in the Middle East is a downside risk though signals are mixed, with the Empire State index slipping in March but the Philly Fed’s increasingly strong. January and February both saw preliminary indices weaker than the final, which also hints at downside risk for preliminary March data.
The S and P services index probably sees more risk than manufacturing from the situation in the Middle East, with consumers vulnerable. However with February’s index at a 10-month low, well below the ISM services index, there may be only modest downside scope in March, and we do not expect a negative outcome.
