USD flows: Sketchy, but oil and dollar backing off

Challenger layoffs a rare piece of somewhat negative news, at 96k the highest since May20 - although this actually not up that much on last May (though that wasn't a great payrolls month).

Hirings also firmer though at 19k, highest since May22, so to an extent a story of 'churn' with rotation to AI noted in tech. US initial claims meanwhile rose 13k to 225k, a bit above expectations but still consistent with a solid trend.

After the sceptical last few sessions, oil getting a little bit more corrective traction now, down 3% and breaking the recent mini uptrend. Whether fully justified is an open question – Israel doesn’t seem to be particularly dialling down on strikes or troop location and Hezbollah headlines on the wires saying only care about a ceasefire that includes the south. Still, the impromptu statement from Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei that the ‘malicious enemy has been defeated with a decisive blow’ is being read, rightly or not, as possibly front running reception of moves towards a possible deal. All very sketchy of course but for now crude keeping the faith and still tending to range in the $90-95 +/- zone as the mood ebbs and flows. 

Dollar backoff also coming through a bit more after wary morning, EUR/USD leaking back out from 1.16 towards 1.1650 again for instance.