Preview: Due August 3 - U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Deliveries and prices paid normalizing
We expect modest slippage in July’s ISM manufacturing index to 53.0 from 53.3, extending a dip from May’s bounce to 54.0 which was the highest level since May 2022.
Signals from other surveys are mostly neutral though July’s Philly Fed manufacturing index was very strong and July’s S and P manufacturing PMI saw some slippage.
July’s slowing is likely to be led by delivery times, slowing to 55.0 from 57.4 in a continued normalization from April and May readings that reached 60.6 on Middle East supply disruptions. We also expect modest slowing in inventories and new orders from June accelerations. Providing some offset will be pick-ups in new orders from a slower June while we expect employment to reach a neutral 560 fir the first time since January 2025, assisted by seasonal adjustments.
Prices paid do not contribute to the composite, but like delivery times should continue to normalize, falling to 70.0, the lowest since January, from 73.0 in June and a high of 84.6 seen in April.
