EUR/USD flows: 38% back; IFO just as expected
Sitting around the next key reference area, can push lower later
German IFO data overall as expected – headline shows improvement in line with market to 85.6 from 84.9 – though breakdown does show a slightly better mix of current (87 from 86.1, mkt 86.3) to expectations (84.1 from 83.8, mkt 85.1) versus consensus. There’s likely more from the geopolitical improvement still to filter through to the expectations measure, assuming things remain on track. The data is not really adding anything new and set aside.
EUR/USD has made it to 1.1350, round figure and just a few ticks through the 38.2% retracement. Does offer a point for a breather, but if/when this is given up, the 50% reference is down at 1.1130, though with big figure levels the main targets in-between.