U.S. August New Home Sales - More strong data but this one will be hard to sustain
August new home sales with a 6.4% rise to 684k have more than fully erased a 4.3% July decline (previously reported as -10.5%). This continues the recent string of stronger than expected US data, even in housing, identified by Fed Chairman Warsh at Jackson Hole and one of two areas of weakness, along with agriculture.
The rise takes new home sales to their highest level since December and back into the range that prevailed though most of 2024 and 2025, before slippage in the first half of this year. The bounce is however unlikely to extended much further with renewed Fed tightening bringing downside risk going forward.
Sales were mixed by region with a strong rise in the Midwest looking erratic. The South, the largest region, also increased while slippage was even in the Northeast and the West.
Price data is mixed but on balance weak. The median rose by 0.4% on the month but fell by 5.8% yr/yr. a 13-month low.
The average plunged by 8.8% on the month and by 9.1% yr/yr, the latter the lowest in two years but probably in part erratic.
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