Preview: Due July 28 - U.S. June Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain large
We expect an advance June trade deficit of $100.8bn, down from $105.9bn in May which was the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit in March 2025, but still significantly above the deficits seen in the first four months of 2026.
We expect exports to rebound by 4.0% after a 5.3% decline in May that followed four straight strong gains. The rebound in exports would be despite a 0.6% decline in export prices. We however expect imports to extend a strong May rise of 4.0%, rising by 1.0%, with 0.3% of that coming from price gains. Imports may be getting support from the Supreme Court ruling against tariffs.
The report will be significant for Q2 GDP which is due for release on July 30. Also significant will be advance estimates for retail and wholesale inventories due with the advance goods trade data.
