U.S. June S&P PMIs - Resilience suggests tariff worries have peaked
June’s preliminary S and P PMIs shows manufacturing unexpectedly sustaining an improved May level of 52.0, and while services slipped to 53.1 from 53.7, the index remains well above April’s weaker 50.8. This is consistent with tariff concerns being past their peak.
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The resilience of manufacturing is a little surprising with May’s ISM manufacturing index having marginally slipped (though there were some signs of improvement in the detail) and June’s Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing surveys failing to impress.
The S and P services index is not well correlated with its ISM counterpart, but contrasts a move below the neutral 50 in May’s ISM index, and hints that a recent slowing trend in the ISM services index can see some stabilization. The S and P composite index saw only a marginal dip in June, to 52.8 from 53.0.
