Ghana Country Risk Rating

Overall risk for Ghana remains medium. John Mahama, a member of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), had secured his second non-consecutive term following the NDC’s 184 out of 276 seats victory in Ghana’s 2024 presidential election. A result that was nationally expected due to the worsening debt crisis, poverty and depleted living standards all under the former leadership of President Nana Akufo-Addo. Under President Mahama, Ghana became the first African nation to establish a Security and Defense Partnership with the EU, while continuing to promote ECOWAS-related policies, amid a persistent medium rating in political interference, political violence and legal & regulatory risk. Security risk in the West of Africa continues its pathway of deterioration, particularly affecting Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger but also Ghana due to the heightened risk of terrorist spillover. Ghana’s northern border, in particular, has been susceptible to incursions by armed jihadist groups operating from Burkina Faso. Although the U.S.-Iran conflict has created many social and economic consequences globally, Ghana’s economy has remained rather resilient against external shocks, as President Mahama reinforces that the nation’s economy remains stable during times of volatile fuel prices. The IMF in April 2026 had forecast a GDP growth of 4.8% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027. The Ghanaian economy is driven primarily by the agricultural sector and natural resource exports, in particular gold, following a record 6 million ounces of gold produced in 2025. However, China, Western governments and mining companies had voiced their concerns prior to the implementation of a higher gold royalty policy in March 2026, warning the West African nation of reduced investment. The government’s inability to provide stimulus has seen improvement to a medium-low risk rating, while the risk of doing business is unchanged at medium-high. Inflationary pressure appears to be mounting due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S and Israel’s war against Iran, as Ghanaian petrol prices have risen by 15%, given that the country imports 70% of its refined fuel. The central bank, however, has continued its rate cutting cycle. In March 2026, a fifth rate cut of 150 bps was delivered reducing its policy rate to 14%, stating that their inflation expectations over the medium term are between 6%-10%. Sovereign non-payment risk and exchange transfer continue to be assessed at a medium rating. Ghana’s DDEP Program, initiated in 2022, was set up to address the unsustainable levels of debt and to improve investors’ confidence in the nation’s bonds. The latest USD 910 mln payment in interest through the DDEP Program in February 2026 is Ghana’s second full cash coupon payment, showing great improvement in the country’s fiscal capacity. Therefore, the IMF forecast government debt to GDP to continue its trend of reduction, falling from 53% in 2026 to 50.7% in 2027.