Preview: Due August 4 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain large
We expect a June trade deficit of $73.5bn, down from $77.6bn in May which was the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit in March 2025, but still significantly above the deficits seen in the first four months of 2026, each of which was close to $55bn.
We expect a goods trade deficit of $102.0bn versus $106.5bbn in May with exports down by 1.8% and imports down by 2.6%, both in line with the advance goods data already released. In the advance data the imports fall was broad based while the exports drop was led by industrial supplies, with autos and consumer goods firmer. This will be a second straight decline in exports after four straight gains while goods imports will be seeing their first fall in five months.
For services we expect a fall in the surplus to $28.5bn from $28.9bn, with exports up by 0.2% and imports up by 0.7%. This will be in line with the assumptions for June services trade in the Q2 GDP report. Overall we expect exports to fall by 1.1% and imports to fall by 1.9%.
