Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Deficit moving higher
We expect a September trade deficit of $107.9bn, up from $105.6bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $133.0bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.
We expect a 2.0% increase in exports after rise of 1.4% in August and a 2.1% increase in imports after a strong 4.3% August increase. This will deliver a third straight rise in the deficit.
Advance goods data showed exports up by 2.6% and imports up by 2.4%, but imports up by more in USD terms. The exports gain was largely on prices but the imports gain more evenly split between prices and volumes.
We expect services to show a 0.9% rise in exports and a 0.6% rise in imports, consistent with the assumptions of the Q3 GDP report.