U.S. October Preliminary Michigan CSI - Little changed, still pessimistic
October’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 55.0 is almost unchanged from September’s final of 55.1, if the weakest outcome since May. Inflation expectations were also little changed, the 1-year view down to 4.6% from 4.7% and the 5-10 year view unchanged at 3.6%.
Levels of 52.2 in both April and May were the weakest since July 2022 so the current level shows consumers are quite pessimistic, contrasting recent resilience in spending. The gloom may be in part political rather than economic, though the government shutdown does not seem to have had much impact.
October detail shows current conditions slightly higher at 61.0 from 60.4 but expectations slightly lower at 51.2 from 51.7. Expectations are particularly weak historically.
Inflation expectations are well off recent highs of 6.6% for 1-year and 4.4% for 5-10 years seen after April’s tariff announcement but still significantly above levels near 3.0% that persisted through 2024.
