Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance - Exports, Imports and Deficit to rise
We expect an advance May goods trade deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.0bn in April and the widest deficit since December. We expect exports and imports to both show strong gains, rising by 4.0% and 4.5% respectively. Even if exports and imports saw the same gain in percentage terms, the deficit would increase due to imports exceeding exports in USD terms.
Import prices increased by 1.9% in May, ahead of a 1.3% rise in export prices. This implies similar gains in volumes for both imports and exports, of 2.6% and 2.7% respectively, resuming a recent strong trend after April data saw little change. Boeing data suggests strength in aircraft exports.
April exports showed strength in oil but slippage in nonmonetary gold. The latter has been particularly volatile recently but levels are still elevated. Import volumes in May were restrained by weakness in oil. Computers have been a significant part of recent strength in both series.
