Published: 2026-10-27T16:13:33.000Z
Preview: Due November 4 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Maintaining a moderate trend
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We expect an 65k increase in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to October 10, the week before the monthly survey, was 16.5k, broadly consistent with our forecast.
This is slightly above our forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls of 45k, and would be a second straight ADP outperformance and the fifth ADP outperformance in six months. It would be slower than September’s 90k ADP increase but consistent with recent trend.
The main risk of slowing is from education and health, which rise by 55k in September’s ADP re[ort but only 20k in October’s non-farm, payroll, where trend in the sector has slowed significantly from earlier strong levels.
