Preview: Due October 6 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
We expect an August trade deficit of $102.3bn, up sharply from $88.6bn in July and the widest deficit since the record $133.0bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. August’s deficit will be larger than anything seen before Q1 2025.
We expect a 1.4% increase in exports that would follow three straight declines and a very strong 4.5% increase in imports, extending a rise of 2.8% in July. Advance goods data has already been released and showed exports up by 1.9% and imports up by 5.5%. Both gains were led by industrial supplies, with exports weak and imports quite strong in most other components. Industrial supplies include oil.
We expect a marginal increase in the services surplus to $31.1bn from $31.0bn, reaching its highest level since March. We expect service exports and imports to both rise by 0.5% after respective declines of 0.4% and 0.8% in July, which corrected strong gains of 1.1% in each series in June.
