Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Bounce from a below trend August
We expect a 3.5% increase in September durable goods orders after a below trend 0.1% decline in August. While aircraft are likely to lead the increase we expect a healthy 1.0% increase ex transport, also picking up from a below trend 0.2% rise in August.
Boeing orders data saw a strong month in September after a below trend August and this is likely to lead an 8.5% increase in transport. We expect a neutral contribution from autos and a modest increase in defense (which has a large overlap with transport) after two straight declines. Ex defense we expect a rise of 3.6% after a flat August.
August’s 0.2% increase ex transport as the slowest of since October 2025. We expect September data to confirm that trend remains firm, still fueled by AI investment. The ISM manufacturing new orders index regained momentum in September after slowing in August.
Non-defense capital orders ex aircraft, a key indicator for business investment, significantly outperformed the ex transport series in August with a rise of 1.6%. We expect a modest underperformance in September, with a rise of 0.8%, though trend remains strong.
