Preview: Due March 4 - U.S. February ADP Employment - To pick up after underperforming payrolls in January
We expect a 60k increase in February’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be a significant pick up from January’s 22k, which dramatically underperformed a 172k increase in January’s private sector non-farm payroll.
We expect February’s ADP report to marginally outperform a 50k increase in private sector non-farm payrolls, while we expect overall non-farm payrolls to increase by only 35k. Bad weather in late January and early February may impact payrolls more than the ADP data, which tends to be less weather-sensitive than payrolls.
Weekly ADP data shows a 4-week average of 12.75k in the for weeks to February 7. The 4-week average may pick up in the week to February 14, given a fall in initial, claims in that week, the survey week for the monthly report. That would be consistent with a monthly ADP gain of 60k.
We expect February’s ADP detail to show goods unchanged after an increase of 1k in January, but services picking up to a 60k increase after a rise of only 22k in January. A 57k decline in professional and business was the main restraint on January’s ADP data, and is likely to see a correction higher in February.
