Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. December Existing Home Sales - Momentum building
We expect December existing home sales to increase by 2.9% to 4.25m, which would be the strongest of four straight gains after a modest 0.5% rise in November.
The most powerful signal for a strong rise comes from four straight gains in pending home sales, which are designed to predict existing home sales, but other housing sector surveys have been showing signs of modest improvement, presumably assisted by the resumption of Fed easing.
We expect a 0.5% seasonal decline in the median price, and with December 2024 having seen a smaller fall than is usual for December, yr/yr growth would then slip, to 0.9% from 1.2%. Yr/yr growth in sales will remain negative at -0.9% despite the monthly rise, from -1.0% in November. though this would see the yr/yr pace increase to 2.1% from 2.0%, extending the move off a recent low of 1.0% seen in July.
