Preview: Due October 20 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but on balance negative
We expect September housing starts to increase by 1.2% to 1290k after two straight declines while permits fall by 2.6% to 1370k, a second straight fall. On balance this would imply a slowing housing market.
Most housing sector data are showing signs of slowing but new home sales were firmer in August, and can be a leading indicator for starts. September’s non-farm payroll showed a rise in construction employment but a fall in its workweek.
We expect the starts breakdown to show a 4.1% decline in singles after a 7.6% August increase but a 14.8% increase in the more volatile multiples sector after a 21.7% August decline.
We expect the permits decline to be fairly balanced, with singles down by 2.3% and multipoles down by 2.5%, both after similarly modest declines in August. This would suggest a weakening underlying trend.
