Published: 2026-06-17T15:00:42.000Z
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q1 GDP - No significant revision
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We expect a final estimate of Q1 GDP at 1.6%, unrevised from the preliminary, though in USD terms we do expect a marginal upward revision.
March retail sales were revised marginally higher but we do not expect that to lift consumer spending from the preliminary 1.4%. Construction revisions imply a downward revision to housing but upward revisions to non-residential structures and public construction.
We do not expect any revisions to the price indices, of 3.5% for GDP, 4.5% for PCE and 4.4% for core PCE. Current indications are that Q2 GDP will be stronger than Q1 but we expect some loss of momentum in the second half of the year.
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