Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit rising again
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $122.7bn, a marginal increase from July’s $118.9bn which was the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $158.7bn seen in March 2025.
We expect a 0.5% increase in exports but in real terms we expect exports to be almost unchanged after three straight declines. We expect a negative trend to persist but a sharp July fall in exports of non-monetary gold is unlikely to be repeated.
We expect a 1.5% increase in imports, and with price changes similar to those for exports the majority of such an imports gain would come from volumes. The imports gain would however be slower than that of July, when imports of computers rose particularly sharply. However, strength in imports of computers is a major factor in the recent widening of the deficit., and that trend is likely to continue.
The advance goods data will be significant for what are currently strong estimates for Q3 GDP. Advance data for August retail and wholesale inventories are also due, and could provide some offset to any large movement in imports in the GDP calculations.